by Alex Marshall, Editor, Spotlight on the Region
As the federal government prepares to buy up struggling banks and New York City faces economic crisis, there's a certain irony that the city's grim fortunes in its hometown industry are boosting the chances of its preferred presidential candidate: Sen. Barack Obama.
It's no secret that New York City is just about the bluest big city in the country, to use the argot of campaign followers. In 2004 and 2000, the city voted for Senators John Kerry and Al Gore by margins of roughly three to one, a hugely lopsided ratio for that many people. Regionally, the margins were less but still overwhelmingly Democratic. Nationally, of course, George W. Bush ended up winning both races.
During the months of this summer, before the economic crisis intensified, there were some signs that this election would be a repeat, with perhaps the Republican Sen. John McCain squeaking out a narrow victory. Despite a declining economy and George W. Bush fatigue, national polls still showed Senators Obama and McCain roughly tied. Obama faced a steep climb up the Electoral College map.
Since the economic downturn turned into a full panic over the last few weeks, all that has changed. Polls show Obama pulling away nationally and competing even in solidly Republican states like North Carolina and my native Virginia. A squeaker of an election may turn into a rout.
All this could change in the last few weeks of the election of course. A gaffe by Obama or a convincing new argument by McCain, or an unexpected turn of events, could change the election dynamic once again. And, just to be clear, what I write here is not an endorsement either way, just simply the musings of an old political reporter, who wrote about elections before urban planning.
But if Obama wins the presidency, it may be a bittersweet victory for those who color themselves blue in the region. The city and region will almost certainly face hard times in coming months or even years. President Obama, if he does indeed win the election, will have a responsibility for leading the nation and the city and region of New York out of it. One could argue who would do a better job at this, but it's a near certainty that if Obama occupies the Oval Office next year, this crisis will have helped put him there.
The city's pain is Obama's gain.
As the federal government prepares to buy up struggling banks and New York City faces economic crisis, there's a certain irony that the city's grim fortunes in its hometown industry are boosting the chances of its preferred presidential candidate: Sen. Barack Obama.
It's no secret that New York City is just about the bluest big city in the country, to use the argot of campaign followers. In 2004 and 2000, the city voted for Senators John Kerry and Al Gore by margins of roughly three to one, a hugely lopsided ratio for that many people. Regionally, the margins were less but still overwhelmingly Democratic. Nationally, of course, George W. Bush ended up winning both races.
During the months of this summer, before the economic crisis intensified, there were some signs that this election would be a repeat, with perhaps the Republican Sen. John McCain squeaking out a narrow victory. Despite a declining economy and George W. Bush fatigue, national polls still showed Senators Obama and McCain roughly tied. Obama faced a steep climb up the Electoral College map.
Since the economic downturn turned into a full panic over the last few weeks, all that has changed. Polls show Obama pulling away nationally and competing even in solidly Republican states like North Carolina and my native Virginia. A squeaker of an election may turn into a rout.
All this could change in the last few weeks of the election of course. A gaffe by Obama or a convincing new argument by McCain, or an unexpected turn of events, could change the election dynamic once again. And, just to be clear, what I write here is not an endorsement either way, just simply the musings of an old political reporter, who wrote about elections before urban planning.
But if Obama wins the presidency, it may be a bittersweet victory for those who color themselves blue in the region. The city and region will almost certainly face hard times in coming months or even years. President Obama, if he does indeed win the election, will have a responsibility for leading the nation and the city and region of New York out of it. One could argue who would do a better job at this, but it's a near certainty that if Obama occupies the Oval Office next year, this crisis will have helped put him there.
The city's pain is Obama's gain.
@RegionalPlan