by the RPA Staff
With RPA's Regional Assembly, "Planning in an Age of Disaster," rapidly approaching, this edition of Spotlight on the Region takes a closer look at the disaster preparedness issues that will be discussed at Friday's event at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel.
Transportation and infrastructure improvements will be a major theme for the event. New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer will present his transportation agenda for New York over breakfast. This keynote speech will mark the first time the gubernatorial candidate has detailed his transportation platform. We expect Spitzer's primary opponent, Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi, will also share some ideas for the state's transportation network during his remarks on the plenary panel (see below).
Barbara Faga, Chair of national consulting firm EDAW, will then present a series of maps her firm prepared for RPA and the University of Texas at Austin illustrating the Gulf Coast's continued vulnerability to major storms and sea rise. These maps starkly show that many areas being rebuilt with public funds will immediately be in jeopardy from expected future events. Faga will then moderate a plenary panel featuring Suozzi, Congressman Anthony Weiner, Columbia Professor Gregory Thomas and Port Authority Chairman Anthony Coscia. With the Gulf Coast maps as prelude, the plenary participants will be asked about the steps being taken to avoid a similar disaster in our region, as well as plans to protect our ports and transit network from a variety of threats.
The plenary panel will be followed by breakout sessions on six topics relevant to disaster planning: keeping the region moving safely; preventing a northeast energy disaster; examining the role of fear in planning; protecting the most vulnerable; coastal hazards; and designing for disaster. Each panel will feature expert speakers, including Assemblyman Richard Brodsky, security and planning officials from the MTA, NJ TRANSIT and the Port Authority, architects and engineers, and many others.
At lunch, former Chair of Transport for London (and former head of both the MTA and the Partnership for NYC) Robert Kiley will give a firsthand account of the anxious hours, days and months following the London transit bombings. He'll be telling his story for the first time in this country, and will use his knowledge of New York and London to share lessons for our region.
You can still register for the event at www.rpa.org, where a full program can be seen, or by calling 212/253-2727, ext. 317. We hope to see you on Friday.
Planning in an Age of Disaster: A Difficult Challenge
In 1911, the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory Fire in Greenwich Village, with its terrible images of young women jumping to their death from a locked factory floor, marked a turning point in workplace safety and regulation for the city and the nation.
Almost a century later, the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in Lower Manhattan, followed in 2003 by the massive power outage in the Northeast, then last year by the strike of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, have again marked a turning point in our priorities as a region and a nation. It's fair to say that preparing for disasters of all kinds is a greater priority than it was five years ago.
How does one prepare for disaster? With multiple risks and an infinite number of potential scenarios, it is an enormous challenge to develop strategies and allocate resources on a rational basis. At times, the efforts begin to resemble the planning equivalent of arbitrage or a hedge fund. Public and private officials must spend scarce resources, on things as varied as levees against flooding, or off-site data backups, on the possibility that something bad might occur in the future. Assessing those probabilities is always difficult, sometimes impossible. Too often, we focus solely on the latest incident until we are faced with a new disaster. In the military, strategists talk about the danger of generals "fighting the last war." We also need to weigh the tradeoffs between security and the free flow of people, ideas and goods that are at the heart of our global advantage.
Complicating planning is the distortion of perception that fear itself causes. As philosophers from Albert Camus to Bruce Springsteen have observed, fear can arouse but also debilitate, reducing our ability to respond logically and effectively to threatening situations. For a number of experts, it is the ability to clearly and impartially assess the risks - without minimizing the impact or overdramatizing the consequences - that is key to effectively addressing natural or man-made disasters.
The Tri-State region has unique features that shape risk assessment for different types of events. Its population density raises the stakes for all types of disasters. Its reliance on an extensive public transit network presents vulnerabilities to terrorist attacks, flooding and power failures, but also provides redundancy in the transportation system and evacuation options for people without access to an automobile. Its network of islands, rivers and estuaries makes coastal areas vulnerable to storms and floods. Each of these attributes leaves different populations vulnerable to particular catastrophes.
For example, one out of every ten households in the region does not own a car. These are concentrated in poorer households and in urban areas, and in New York City 59% of households have no automobile to rely on in the event that a major hurricane, fire, bioterrorism or other event requires evacuation. These are much higher figures than New Orleans or any other region of the country. Unlike these other regions, we have extensive rail service, which provides far greater capacity for moving thousands of people out of a region quickly compared to freeways, which quickly become jammed. But rail lines and stations are also vulnerable to disruption. And with 5 million people entering and leaving the Manhattan central business district every day on public transportation, the threat of a major disruption, attack or catastrophe on the transit network is a major concern.
Natural disasters wreak havoc across urban and suburban boundaries, but also have their own particular geographic reach. For example, coastal areas and river basins are more vulnerable to flooding from storms and hurricanes. These areas, despite their risk of flooding, are some of the richest and most thoroughly settled, a pattern stimulated by various policies ranging from federal flood insurance to local land use laws. About 1.6 million people, 7% of the region's population, lives in the 100 year flood plain.
Looming like a stern judgment is the assessment by many experts that flooding from hurricanes and nor'easters in the near future, whether because of global warming or the greater imperviousness of watersheds, will be more frequent. This in turn raises questions such as whether we should consider infrastructure-based remedies of protection, like gates or walls to prevent flooding. There are also smarter land use policies to consider, which would encourage parks and other natural area buffers along coastal and river corridors.
While the circumstances and the character of the population vary widely for different types of disasters, the challenges can be grouped into three areas--planning, emergency response and recovery.
Planning is the most complex of these dimensions, both because it needs to anticipate an infinite number of contingencies and because it involves nearly every aspect of regional development and organization, from where to locate new housing to how to organize communication networks, medical care and other service delivery systems. Perhaps the most fundamental goal is to institutionalize objectives and processes that recognize the importance of encouraging settlement patterns and systems that minimize the risks to the poor, elderly and other vulnerable populations.
Emergency response raises the ultimate specter of evacuating the most densely populated region in the country in the event of a Category 4 hurricane or a dirty bomb. How long would such an evacuation take, how would it be coordinated, and how would we insure that the most isolated and dependent residents are reached? A primary goal is to insure that the many agencies that cut across jurisdictional lines in all three states have a clear plan, governance structure and chain of command in such an event.
Recovery is the ultimate test of whether a tragedy leaves any fundamental legacy that reduces inequities and vulnerabilities in the future. It is to the region's great credit that since the terrible days of Sept. 11, 2001, the region's economy has recovered and in many ways the region is healthier than ever. There has been no massive flight of population away from New York City. Quite the opposite has happened, as the city experienced one of its greatest real-estate booms in its history. Nor have the neighboring towns and cities suffered economically. But beneath this economic boom lies a continued unease with the possibility that disaster of some sort could strike again, with possibly even greater consequences than five years ago.
With RPA's Regional Assembly, "Planning in an Age of Disaster," rapidly approaching, this edition of Spotlight on the Region takes a closer look at the disaster preparedness issues that will be discussed at Friday's event at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel.
Transportation and infrastructure improvements will be a major theme for the event. New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer will present his transportation agenda for New York over breakfast. This keynote speech will mark the first time the gubernatorial candidate has detailed his transportation platform. We expect Spitzer's primary opponent, Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi, will also share some ideas for the state's transportation network during his remarks on the plenary panel (see below).
Barbara Faga, Chair of national consulting firm EDAW, will then present a series of maps her firm prepared for RPA and the University of Texas at Austin illustrating the Gulf Coast's continued vulnerability to major storms and sea rise. These maps starkly show that many areas being rebuilt with public funds will immediately be in jeopardy from expected future events. Faga will then moderate a plenary panel featuring Suozzi, Congressman Anthony Weiner, Columbia Professor Gregory Thomas and Port Authority Chairman Anthony Coscia. With the Gulf Coast maps as prelude, the plenary participants will be asked about the steps being taken to avoid a similar disaster in our region, as well as plans to protect our ports and transit network from a variety of threats.
The plenary panel will be followed by breakout sessions on six topics relevant to disaster planning: keeping the region moving safely; preventing a northeast energy disaster; examining the role of fear in planning; protecting the most vulnerable; coastal hazards; and designing for disaster. Each panel will feature expert speakers, including Assemblyman Richard Brodsky, security and planning officials from the MTA, NJ TRANSIT and the Port Authority, architects and engineers, and many others.
At lunch, former Chair of Transport for London (and former head of both the MTA and the Partnership for NYC) Robert Kiley will give a firsthand account of the anxious hours, days and months following the London transit bombings. He'll be telling his story for the first time in this country, and will use his knowledge of New York and London to share lessons for our region.
You can still register for the event at www.rpa.org, where a full program can be seen, or by calling 212/253-2727, ext. 317. We hope to see you on Friday.
Planning in an Age of Disaster: A Difficult Challenge
In 1911, the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory Fire in Greenwich Village, with its terrible images of young women jumping to their death from a locked factory floor, marked a turning point in workplace safety and regulation for the city and the nation.
Almost a century later, the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in Lower Manhattan, followed in 2003 by the massive power outage in the Northeast, then last year by the strike of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, have again marked a turning point in our priorities as a region and a nation. It's fair to say that preparing for disasters of all kinds is a greater priority than it was five years ago.
How does one prepare for disaster? With multiple risks and an infinite number of potential scenarios, it is an enormous challenge to develop strategies and allocate resources on a rational basis. At times, the efforts begin to resemble the planning equivalent of arbitrage or a hedge fund. Public and private officials must spend scarce resources, on things as varied as levees against flooding, or off-site data backups, on the possibility that something bad might occur in the future. Assessing those probabilities is always difficult, sometimes impossible. Too often, we focus solely on the latest incident until we are faced with a new disaster. In the military, strategists talk about the danger of generals "fighting the last war." We also need to weigh the tradeoffs between security and the free flow of people, ideas and goods that are at the heart of our global advantage.
Complicating planning is the distortion of perception that fear itself causes. As philosophers from Albert Camus to Bruce Springsteen have observed, fear can arouse but also debilitate, reducing our ability to respond logically and effectively to threatening situations. For a number of experts, it is the ability to clearly and impartially assess the risks - without minimizing the impact or overdramatizing the consequences - that is key to effectively addressing natural or man-made disasters.
The Tri-State region has unique features that shape risk assessment for different types of events. Its population density raises the stakes for all types of disasters. Its reliance on an extensive public transit network presents vulnerabilities to terrorist attacks, flooding and power failures, but also provides redundancy in the transportation system and evacuation options for people without access to an automobile. Its network of islands, rivers and estuaries makes coastal areas vulnerable to storms and floods. Each of these attributes leaves different populations vulnerable to particular catastrophes.
For example, one out of every ten households in the region does not own a car. These are concentrated in poorer households and in urban areas, and in New York City 59% of households have no automobile to rely on in the event that a major hurricane, fire, bioterrorism or other event requires evacuation. These are much higher figures than New Orleans or any other region of the country. Unlike these other regions, we have extensive rail service, which provides far greater capacity for moving thousands of people out of a region quickly compared to freeways, which quickly become jammed. But rail lines and stations are also vulnerable to disruption. And with 5 million people entering and leaving the Manhattan central business district every day on public transportation, the threat of a major disruption, attack or catastrophe on the transit network is a major concern.
Natural disasters wreak havoc across urban and suburban boundaries, but also have their own particular geographic reach. For example, coastal areas and river basins are more vulnerable to flooding from storms and hurricanes. These areas, despite their risk of flooding, are some of the richest and most thoroughly settled, a pattern stimulated by various policies ranging from federal flood insurance to local land use laws. About 1.6 million people, 7% of the region's population, lives in the 100 year flood plain.
Looming like a stern judgment is the assessment by many experts that flooding from hurricanes and nor'easters in the near future, whether because of global warming or the greater imperviousness of watersheds, will be more frequent. This in turn raises questions such as whether we should consider infrastructure-based remedies of protection, like gates or walls to prevent flooding. There are also smarter land use policies to consider, which would encourage parks and other natural area buffers along coastal and river corridors.
While the circumstances and the character of the population vary widely for different types of disasters, the challenges can be grouped into three areas--planning, emergency response and recovery.
Planning is the most complex of these dimensions, both because it needs to anticipate an infinite number of contingencies and because it involves nearly every aspect of regional development and organization, from where to locate new housing to how to organize communication networks, medical care and other service delivery systems. Perhaps the most fundamental goal is to institutionalize objectives and processes that recognize the importance of encouraging settlement patterns and systems that minimize the risks to the poor, elderly and other vulnerable populations.
Emergency response raises the ultimate specter of evacuating the most densely populated region in the country in the event of a Category 4 hurricane or a dirty bomb. How long would such an evacuation take, how would it be coordinated, and how would we insure that the most isolated and dependent residents are reached? A primary goal is to insure that the many agencies that cut across jurisdictional lines in all three states have a clear plan, governance structure and chain of command in such an event.
Recovery is the ultimate test of whether a tragedy leaves any fundamental legacy that reduces inequities and vulnerabilities in the future. It is to the region's great credit that since the terrible days of Sept. 11, 2001, the region's economy has recovered and in many ways the region is healthier than ever. There has been no massive flight of population away from New York City. Quite the opposite has happened, as the city experienced one of its greatest real-estate booms in its history. Nor have the neighboring towns and cities suffered economically. But beneath this economic boom lies a continued unease with the possibility that disaster of some sort could strike again, with possibly even greater consequences than five years ago.
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